GROK’S GROUNDHOG DAY MARKET
Erie, PA • Feb 2, 2026 • Early Spring Line
Early Spring or 6+ Weeks Winter?
Early Spring
-200
65% Implied Probability
6+ Weeks Winter
+150
~40% Implied Probability
Early Spring 65%
35% More Winter
MASON’S PICK: EARLY SPRING @ -200
Why Early Spring (Quick Breakdown)
- NOAA MAM 2026: Above-normal temps favored in eastern PA/Great Lakes (La Niña fading fast → neutral by spring).
- Old Farmer’s Almanac: Warmer April-May in PA; March milder than avg with less precip east.
- Historical + models: Erie first consistent 45-55°F highs mid-March in transitional years; Phil’s shadow has ~35-39% accuracy only.
My Edge: 60-70% confidence (models > folklore).
Countdown to First Consistent Spring-Like Temps
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March 15, 2026 — Highs regularly 45-55°F+, thaw begins (Erie estimate)